Proactive intelligence

The traditional role of intelligence services has entered into a period of crisis. For decades the main objective of the intelligence system has been (and still is) to detect the moment at which a potential risk becomes a genuine threat and to act when this transition occurs. The logic of this system is based on the same conception that dominated futures studies in its early times: the predictive approach. Essentially, this approach postulates that it is possible to predict the future if you have enough high-quality information; the equivalent to this in intelligence terms would be that you can predict a threat if you have enough privileged information.This approach has been successful for some time, but the changes that the world has undergone in recent years have rendered it obsolete. Globalization, the collapse of the Eastern Bloc and the emergence of new forms of terrorism are forcing intelligence services to develop new methods to keep pace. The doctrine of pre-emptive attacks could be considered an initial move in this direction, but this paper, which is the preliminary version of a forthcoming dissertation, will argue that a far more profound change is required. In short, the current demand is for a new kind of intelligence that has a far more transversal perspective, a systemic mode of operation and an anticipatory approach to risks and threats: proactive intelligence.     

Strength in diversity? Fiscal federalism among the fifty US states

Fiscal federalism in the USA has a distinctive structure that contrasts sharply with that in most other industrialized nations. Our purpose in this paper is to describe and explore the US “brand” of fiscal federalism. We demonstrate that there is a striking amount of variety in the 50 state fiscal systems and that these differences have prevailed in the face of potentially disruptive forces. The variety we find stems in large part from states having meaningful fiscal autonomy, in particular, the authority to levy taxes. The result is likely higher societal welfare than would ensue without this autonomy.     

Derivation of netput shadow prices under different levels of pest pressure

In this paper, we propose a framework to derive agricultural netput shadow prices that assign values to netputs in terms of their contribution to technical and environmental efficiency. Our modeling approach is based on the dual representation of an event-specific data envelopment model and is applied to a panel dataset of Dutch arable farms. Results show that netput shadow prices vary significantly across pest pressure events, suggesting the relevance to consider the event-specific nature of the production technology when computing them. By revealing the relative importance of pesticides in terms of their contribution to environmental efficiency, this study provides a potential framework for constructing penalties aiming to internalize some portion of the social cost of pesticide use.     

Risk behavior in the presence of government programs

Our paper assesses the impacts of the 1996 US Farm Bill on production decisions. We apply the expected utility model to analyze farmers’ behavior under risk and assess how farmers’ production decisions change in the presence of government programs. Specifically, we empirically evaluate the relative price and the risk-related effects of farm policy changes at the intensive margin of production, as well as the extra value that these policies add to farmers’ certainty equivalent. We use farm-level data collected in Kansas to estimate the model. We find evidence that decoupled government programs have only negligible impacts on production decisions.     

On the determinants of local government performance: A two-stage nonparametric approach

This article analyzes the efficiency of local governments in the Comunitat Valenciana (Spain) and their main explanatory variables. The analysis is performed in two stages. Firstly, efficiency is measured via (nonparametric) activity analysis techniques. Specifically, we consider both Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Free Disposable Hull (FDH) techniques. The second stage identifies some critical determinants of efficiency, focusing on both political and fiscal policy variables. In contrast to previous two-stage research studies, our approach performs the latter attempt via nonparametric smoothing techniques, rather than econometric methods such as OLS or Tobit related techniques. Results show that efficiency scores, especially under the nonconvexity assumption (FDH), are higher for large municipalities. Thus, there is empirical evidence to suggest that resources may be better allocated by large municipalities. However, the inefficiency found is not entirely attributable to poor management, as second-stage analysis reveals both fiscal and political variables to be explicably related to municipality performance. Moreover, the explanatory variables’ impact on efficiency is robust to the chosen technique—either convex DEA or nonconvex FDH.     

Nonparametric estimation of convergence of interest rates: Effects on bond pricing

We present and estimate a model of short term interest rate dynamics where we incorporate the convergent behavior of interest rates implied by the transition to EMU. We apply this model to data of two EMU countries - Spain and Italy - and compare the performance, in terms of accuracy of bond pricing, of this two-factor convergence model with alternative specifications. Nonparametric techniques are used for the estimation of the processes. The two-factor model which accounts for the convergence with Europe of the domestic economies, obtains better results, especially for short-term assets, than alternative models. The results of the nonparametric specifications are shown to be significantly better than those of parametric alternatives.JEL Classification: E43, C14We would like to thank Adrian Pagan and Eduardo Schwartz for their invaluable feedback, encouragement and patience. We also would like to thank the editor, two anonymous referees and participants at the Symposium of Economic Analysis (Barcelona, December 1999), the Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society (Sydney, July 1999), the 2000 European Meeting of the Financial Management Association (Edinburgh, July 2000) and seminars at the Australian National University, Canberra, and at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, for their comments and suggestions. All errors remain our sole responsibility. Financial assistance from the Fundación Ramó n Areces, Madrid, Spain, and the Asociación de Amigos de la Universidad de Navarra, Pamplona, Spain, is gratefully acknowledged.     

Institutional capacity to dynamically innovate: An application to the Portuguese case

The present paper addresses the dynamics of innovation, by extending the analysis beyond a static-economic perspective. It offers a dynamic-institutional mapping of relational capacities to dynamically innovate. Its main goal is to contribute to the above-mentioned research theme by presenting a new methodology able to pinpoint different trends in the relational capacities of institutions when they are innovative. Thereby, major characteristics in the networks of innovation are identified. This investigation uses an extended set of private institutions and public organizations located in Portugal, evaluated by their WebPage contents. To this data set a new combination of multivariate statistical methods is applied to detect group performances, to compare them, and to identify gradients of capacity to dynamically innovate. The results demonstrate that this method can provide extremely useful and tailor-made information for policy evaluation at regional or national levels.     

Time Management in the Cost Evaluation of Limited Resource Programs

Planning, implementing and evaluating an intervention program all hinge around time. A program’s actions are planned according to a forecast of the time required to achieve certain objectives, and the program’s implementation among a group of users is conditioned by its real time application. Similarly, program evaluation needs to take into consideration the time resource when analysing objectively the extent to which a program’s targets have been reached, and when conducting a cost analysis of the program. In limited resource programs, any disparity between the scheduled time and the real time available can have serious consequences, and even undermine a program’s efficacy. Time management, above all where resources are limited, is therefore the linchpin in the planning, implementation and evaluation of an intervention program. In this study we analyse the utility of PERT and CPM as basic tools for the efficient time management of limited resource programs.     

The road to cooperative supply‐chain environmental management: trust and uncertainty among pro‐active firms

The pressures on firms to improve their environmental performance have caused them to look outside their boundaries towards their supply chains. In such approaches, firms work with vendors to develop the environmental profile of supplied materials (for example) by reducing materials' toxicity or the amount of packaging used. While large firms can mandate that their suppliers comply with such initiatives, more cooperative approaches are generally likely to be more fruitful. This article presents the results from an exploratory, two phase study of the conditions under which firms engage in cooperative supply‐chain environmental management. First, the authors conducted interviews with 14 leading‐edge firms. In the second phase, the authors conducted a theoretical‐sample survey to examine a model of the antecedents of cooperative supply‐chain environmental management. The results suggest that inter‐firm trust, uncertainty and pro‐active environmental management most directly affect the extent to which firms engage in cooperative supply‐chain environmental management. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Regional Integration of Nineteenth Century U.S. Egg Markets

Multivariate asymmetric threshold vector error correction models are applied to a historical analysis of the regional integration of U.S. markets for eggs at the turn of the nineteenth century. Two general approaches to the selection of the thresholds are considered. The first criterion ignores the cross equation correlation while the latter explicitly accounts for it. Our results suggest that threshold behaviour characterises spatial price linkages between the markets analysed.